Faculty of Engineering, Mathematics

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item: Thesis-Full-text
Age structural transitions and inflation dynamics in selected south Asian countries
(2020) Ariyarathna PAHR; Sivathas K; Dissanayake R
The aim of this study is to find out whether there is significant effect from age structural transitions on inflation dynamics in some selected South Asian countries such as Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. It has been shown that the age structural transitions can disrupt macroeconomic equilibriums of countries, if unattended. Sri Lanka is facing a decreasing youth dependency ratio growth and increasing elderly dependency ratio growth phase as a result of age structural transitions. This poses serious concerns in terms of obvious factors such as health budget and social security payments to elders in future. In this thesis, I endeavor to study whether age structural transition has an implication on an important macroeconomic indicator which is inflation. A structural VAR model has been constructed to answer this issue. Elderly dependency ratio growth, youth dependency ratio growth, real interest rate and output gap growth are the selected variables from 2003 to 2018 for these models. Cholesky decomposition and structural decomposition used to check the robustness of the models. The empirical results showed that the growth of youth dependency ratio is inflationary for Sri Lanka. But for India and Bangladesh growth of youth dependency ratio does not have any significant effect on inflation. Growth of elderly dependency ratio does not have any significant effect on inflation for Sri Lanka, India and Bangladesh. But the magnitude of the impact from elderly and youth dependency ratio growth on inflation is around 5% over the period of 10 months as the variance decomposition reveals for Sri Lanka and for India and Bangladesh it is around 2%.
item: Thesis-Full-text
Analysing the significant factors which are affected to the selection of higher education opportunities in the private institutions
Waidyasekara, VT; Cooray, TMJA
Gaining higher education is vital for a person to find more lucrative careers pursuing a better professional and personal life growth. In the modern world today, private education institutes play an imperative and a competitive role by opening up many more opportunities for those who are seeking higher education aspirations. At such a turning point of a life, the determinants considered by the students when selecting higher education opportunities in the private institutions are worth to study. The study was carried out with the objectives of identifying the potential students for a particular programme of a private higher education institute in Sri Lanka and to identifying the salient factors which are considered by the students when selecting higher education opportunities in the private institutions. Due to the unavailability of the secondary data source, primary data was collected through a questionnaire survey and descriptive analysis has been carried out to check the relationship between the response variables and other explanatory variables. Due to the availability of colliniarity between explanatory variables and as those variables, factor analysis has been carried out. Hypothesis testing has been carried out for ordinal data using Kruskal Wallis test. As per the major findings, higher studies are more preferred by male students those who have done mathematics for their Advanced Level studies. The main sources, referred for gathering course information are friends and the websites. With reference to the education background and occupation of the respondents’ parents, the most have advanced level qualification, most fathers are government servants and businessmen and mothers are house wives. Parents are the main source of financial contributor for the higher studies of their children. Majority of the respondents live and have studied at Colombo and have gone to national schools. According to the factor analysis, Study Programme, Influence, Accommodation and Attitudes are the determinants considered by students those who are pursuing higher education. According to the Kruskal Wallis test Study Programme depends on gender, programme type (Degree, Advanced Diploma, Diploma, and Certificate) and programme area (Engineering, Medicine, Physical Science, Bio Science, Management and Arts). The Influence depends on programme type and programme area. Accommodation depends on gender, programme type, programme area and type of school. Attitudes depend on programme type, programme area, education of the mothers, district of the school and type of the school.
item: Thesis-Abstract
Analysis of factors underpinning the voting behavior of Sri Lankans under the current economic crisis
(2023) Wathsala, WADR; Jayasinghe, JABU
Voting is the most common and effective way of political participation across the globe, as it showcases the willingness of voters and the fate of a country. It serves as a powerful tool to hold leaders and political parties accountable for their actions. To analyze voting behavior of general public a combination of crucial factors can be taken into account, such as voter satisfaction with recently elected candidates, reasons for voting during next elections, the influence of the ongoing economic crisis on political decision-making and identifying preferred candidate characteristics. To carry out the research, a convenience sampling method was used to select 418 voters and employed Descriptive Statistics and Factor Analysis methods for the data analysis. The Principal Component Analysis method with rotation exhibited the highest level of accuracy in factorization. The findings revealed a prevailing sense of dissatisfaction among voters with the recently elected candidates, while the level of satisfaction was found to be significantly associated with voters' previous voting experiences. The majority believes that the economic crisis has altered their political thinking patterns, and their primary motivation for casting their vote in the next election is to choose a candidate capable of addressing the current economic crisis. Additionally, Factor Analysis revealed five key candidate characteristics that voters prioritize when selecting a suitable candidate.
item: Thesis-Full-text
Analysis of internal factors affecting share prices:
(2020) Umathevan B; Karunarathna KANK
The stock market plays an important role in economic progress of any nation and share price is a key aspect in stock market. Share price is the value of single share of a company's multiple sellable stocks. It represents not only present value of a company, but also the growth. However, the stock market is dependent on several factors and hence, it fluctuates and predicting becomes much more complicated. This study aimed to determine internal factors that influence share price of 24 diversified financial companies listed in Colombo Stock Exchange in the period from 2014 to 2019. Impacts of six variables namely return on assets, return on equity, book value per share, earnings per share, dividend per share and dividend yield on market price of shares in the respective sector were studied. Yeo and Johnson power transformation was used to transform the data and then used for model fitting. The panel data models: ordinary least square with common effect model; fixed effects model; and random effects model were tested. Among these models, the best model was fixed effects model. The results indicated that return on assets, return on equity, book value per share, earnings per share and dividend per share have positive relationship with share price and dividend yield has negative relationship with share price. Further, all these factors have significant impact on market price of share and dividend yield has higher influence whereas book value per share has lower influence on share price. Results of this study implies that investors can take most advantageous investment decisions and be guaranteed favorable returns if they take into consideration of these significant determinants In the future, it can be aimed to complement a study in various sectors with in internal and external variables of and a large timeframe. This would provide better insights on the determinants of share price
item: Thesis-Full-text
Analysis of the effect of broiler breeder's age on performance and behavior of chicken to forty - one days of rearing period
(2020) Karunarathne VLAD; Edirisighe P
The study was based on analysis of the effect of broiler breeder’s age on performance and behavior of chicken during the rearing period (41 days). Broiler chicks (1200 birds) from three different ages of broiler breeders (56 weeks, 72 weeks and 95 weeks (post molted breeder)) were studied for their body weight, feed conversion ratio (FCR), overall mortality rate and behavior for 41 days. The performance of the broiler was analyzed by considering the body weight, FCR and the overall mortality while eating, drinking, moving, laying were considered in behavior analysis. There were three experiment groups based on the age of broiler breeders and additional experiment group was made with mixed chicks from all the three breeders. Data were collected in weekly basis for the four experiment groups. Behavior of broilers was observed according to the scan sampling method at every five minutes interval. Data on body weight, FCR, mortality rate and behavior were analysed by using ANOVA. Mean values of body weight, FCR and behavior were separated by Tukey's Studentized Range (HSD) tests. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was carried out in order to develop an overall behavior index by using sub behavior variables (eating, drinking, moving, laying, other behaviour). Results revealed that body weight of broilers was significantly different and the lowest body weight was found in the youngest breeder batch in the sixth week compared to the 72 weeks old breeder batch. The FCR was significantly different in the 4th week and the population mean FCR value of 56 weeks old breeder is greater than the 72 weeks old breeder. However, the overall mortality rate was not significantly different among all the breeder groups during the rearing period. The 72 weeks old broiler breeder group was identified as the best breeder group in terms of profit and the performance when the body weight values, FCR values, mortality rates and breeder maintenance cost are considered. According to the week wise analysis, the drinking behavior was significantly different among the breeder groups in the 6th week and the mean drinking amount of 95 weeks old breeder group was greater than the mixed aged breeder group. When the moving behavior is considered, it was significantly different among the breeder groups in the 6th week and the mean moving value of 72 and 56 weeks old breeders were greater than the mixed aged breeder group. Further, results revealed that the population overall behavior (overall behavior index value) was not significantly different during the rearing period and also there is no effect on performance of broilers by mixing of chicks from different age breeders. As a concussion, it was found in this study that the breeders’ age influences on the body weight, FCR, performance and some sub behavior parameters of broilers.
item: Thesis-Full-text
Analysis of the relationship between exchange rate, inflation rate and gold price of Sri Lanka:
Karunawardana, KMEM; Cooray, TMJA
Recent records show that the price of gold has been rising at a higher rate than in the past. This has been shown to be true for Sri Lankan gold prices as well. In this study an attempt has been made to develop a forecasting model for gold price and to examine the relationship between selected factors, that is the inflation rate, exchange rate and gold price. The data was mined from the World Gold Council and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. The sample data of gold price were gathered from 2007 January to 2016 March in the currency of US dollars per troy ounce. It was converted into Sri Lankan rupees per 22 carat. Data until December 2015 were used to build the ARIMA model and the VEC model remainder was used to forecast the gold price and to check the accuracy of the model. Box-Jenkins, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average methodology (ARIMA) has been used to developed the model 𝐷[𝐿𝑛[𝐺𝑂𝐿𝐷 𝑃𝑅𝐼𝐶𝐸]]; with terms AR (3) and MA(3) and to forecast the future gold price. The MAPE value of fitted data in the appropriate model is 9.4%. To identify the relationship with gold price, inflation rate and exchange rate, quarter value data of all three factors were used. Two models were developed by based on the minimum AIC and the minimum SIC values. Firstly, the stationarity of the data is checked through the Augmented Dickey Fuller test and then the Johansen co-integration test and the Vector error correction model (VECM) are employed for analysis. The results of the Johansen co-integration test revealed that exchange and inflation rates are co-integrated with the gold price that led to run VECM. The VEC model developed for minimum AIC value provides evidence for the existence of long run and short run relationships between the gold prices, the exchange rate and the inflation rate and the model developed for minimum SIC value as well. The model developed based on minimum SIC value is rejected since the existence of serial correlation. The speed of adjustment to equilibrium is 12.1%, the model explains the gold price of the current quarter as 69.3% of the gold price of the previous quarter, and the exchange and inflation rates in the VEC model developed based on minimum AIC value. The MAPE value of fitted data from appropriate VEC model is 6.36%. When forecasting time period is increasing the percentage error in ARIMA model is higher than the percentage error increasing in appropriate VEC model. According to the mean absolute percentage error as forecasting accuracy measure the study concluded that the VEC model is more appropriate fitted model to forecast the gold price in Sri Lanka than the fitted ARIMA model.
item: Thesis-Full-text
Analysis of the relationship of stock market with exchange rate and spot gold price in Sri Lanka
Wickramasinghe, WTN; Dissanayake, R
Intention of this thesis is to analyze the interrelationship of stock market volatility with LKR/USD exchange rate and spot gold prices in Sri Lankan stock market. There are several statistical techniques used in this study, such as Unit Root Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Box-Pierce test, Ljung–Box test, ARCH LM test in order to identify the relationship between stock returns and macroeconomic variables. Daily data for All Share Price Index, Exchange rate and Spot gold prices were collected over six-year period from 4th Jan 2010 to 4th Mar 2016. EGARCH specification, which was proposed by Nelson was used to model the variables in order to derive an equation to forecast the future behavior of stock returns. Evidently, statistical model depicted a strong evidence on non-existence of relationship between stock returns and exchange rate but it was proven the strong negative relationship between stock returns and spot gold price returns.
item: Thesis-Abstract
An Analysis of trade dynamics of Sri Lankan tea exports
(2023) Dissanayake, AKA; Abeysooriya, RP
Tea exports significantly contribute to the Sri Lankan economy since it is one of the major agricultural export crops in this island nation. Even though Sri Lanka is one of the leading tea exporting nations in the world, the percentage share of Ceylon tea in the global tea market has been gradually decreased over the years. With this background, this study aims to comprehensively investigate the growth patterns, instability, influential factors, and future predictions of tea exports to propose recommendations to improve the tea export industry in Sri Lanka. Secondary data were mainly used in this study. The Compound Annual Growth Rate Analysis was employed to measure growth rates in production and exports of Sri Lankan tea while instability in production and export indicators of tea in Sri Lanka were calculated by using Cuddy Della Valle Index. The Sri Lankan tea export quantity was modelled and predicted by applying forecasting techniques as Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, Gaussian Hidden Markov Model, and Multilayer Perceptron. Sri Lankan tea exports has shown negative growth while tea export value has depicted positive growth during the period from 2011 to 2022. In the same time Iraq was the most stable market for Sri Lankan tea exports. The comparison of the prediction accuracy of various forecasting techniques in tea export quantity prediction was revealed that the Multilayer Perceptron was performed better than other techniques employed in this study. Tea export types as bulk tea, tea packets, and tea bags as well as year majorly affect on the future predictions of Sri Lankan tea export quantity in order to the data series which was applied for this study. The study findings will be useful for researchers, policy makers, exporters, and other relevant authorities. Further research efforts are recommended to do for tea export prices and earnings.
item: Thesis-Abstract
An Analysis on deterministic chaos of exchange rates during COVID -19 outbreak
(2023) Thathsarani, AA; Ganegoda, NC
The COVID-19 influence has had a significant impact in a number of areas, including the economies of many nations. Exchange rates also show noticeable fluctuations during the pandemic period, hence analysis of the behaviour of these fluctuations is useful to make better decisions. This study aims to analyze the deterministic chaos of exchange rates during the COVID-19 period in 2020, using Poincare's definition and forecasting with ARIMA and ETS models, using R software. From 1'1 January 2016 to 3181 December 2020, daily rates between the US Dollar, Euro, British Pound, and Japanese Yen and the Sri Lankan Rupee were collected from reports of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Data from January 2016 to February 2020 are considered for model fitting and the forecast period is considered from March 2020 to December 2020, considering the COVID-19 first wave and the beginning of the second wave in Sri Lanka. According to Poincare's definition, the properties of deterministic chaos are depicted by all four rates, hence showing deterministic chaos during the considered COVID-19 period. Forecasts using ARlMA and ETS models also determine that the USD, GBP, and Japanese Yen show clear chaotic behaviour, while Euro rates show slight chaotic behaviour at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in Sri Lanka.
item: Thesis-Abstract
An analysis on monetary aggregate that reflects macroeconomic framework of sri lanka
Perers, RNS; Abeysekera, N
This thesis investigates the monetary aggregate that reflects the macroeconomic condition of Sri Lanka, the long run money demand relationship, and the determinants of money demand in Sri Lanka since 1978. The estimation ofmoney demand functions for narrow money (Ml) and broad money (M2) using quarterly data for 1978 Quarter 1 to 2009 Quarter 4 forms the basis ofthis investigation. Econometric techniques such as unit root tests, Vector autoregression (VAR) models, Cointegration relationships and some economic fundamentals like elasticities were used to achieve the objectives ofthis study. Set ofVAR models are formed and they suggest that M2 growth is best explained by the macro economic variables; Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI) growth, Real Exchange rate index (REX) growth, and growths of savings and fixed deposit rates ofNational Savings Bank (NSB). This finding is further strengthened by the results of cointegration analysis as only M2 is cointegrated with its determinants. M2 growth is forecasted, to assist policy makers to have a control of monetary expansion. Only M2 had meaningful cointegrating relationships with its determinants ofGDP, CCPI, REX, and One year Fixed deposit rates of National Savings Bank and Commercial Banks. This indicates that M2 demand is stable while Ml demand is not. Therefore, in formulating monetary policy in Sri Lanka, M2 is the aggregate that need to be considered as it better reflects the macroeconomic condition. Results also suggest that, there exist high Income and Price elasticities where as low elasticities for interest rates.
item: Thesis-Abstract
Analyzing & predicting the impact of news on the ASI return of Colombo stock exchange through black-litterman model
(2022) Perera PRSG; Ranasinghe L
Considering the historical data, we can conclude that news on attacks, international political problems, natural disasters, and protests have a negative impact on the stock market return while changes in Government Acts and Election period have a positive impact on stock market return. Further, Monetary & Fiscal policy changes and news on major investments have a neutral impact on the return. The significance of the news has been tested using the t-distribution method. It concludes that Monetary & Fiscal policy changes and news on major investments don't have a significant impact on index returns while other selected events have a significant impact on the index returns. By applying the Black-Litterman model together with hypothetical views, one can develop a P matrix to derive/ predict the return of the index movement. Therefore, an investor/analyst can consider the significance level of the news items (t-distribution results) and the type of impact (negative/positive) when assigning numbers and views for the P matrix.
item: Thesis-Abstract
Analyzing inflation rate and economic growth rate of Sri Lanka: time series approach
(2014-08-14) Prasadanie, RPS; Peiris, TSG
Inflation rate (INR) and Economic growth rate (EGR) are two main economic indicators for any country. These measurements are mainly represents the economic condition of the country, living condition of the people and total production of the country by agriculture, industry and service sectors. As a developing country, these indicators are most important to evaluate the current achievement of development and controlling the economy. In particular forecasting INR and EGR is immense useful for decision makers in policy implementation. Thus yearly data on INR and EGR during 1952-2006 of Sri Lanka is analyzed to forecast those values and to find the association between these two series. Result found that ARIMA (1,1,1) was the best fitted model for INR series. It was found that the errors of fitted model are white noise. The percentage error for the observed data (1952-2006) varies 0 to 17%. The model predicted the INR during 2007 and 2008 as 12.58 and 13.26, and the corresponding percentage errors are 10.1% and 16.6% respectively. ARIMA (1,1,0) was identified as the best fitted model for EGR series. It was found that the errors of fitted model are also white noise and the percentage error for the observed series (1952-2006) varies 0 to 23%. The predicted values for the EGR for 2007 and 2008 are 7.25 and 7.37, and the percentage errors are 6.58% and 22.8% respectively. There was a significant correlation coefficient between INR and EGR (r = 0.447 p = 0.001). The Granger Casualty test confirmed that the INR Granger causes with EGR. The order of the VAR model was decided by the minimum value criteria of sequential modified LR test statistic, Final prediction error (FPE), Akaike information criterion (AIC), Schwarz information criterion (SIC) and Hannan-Quinn information criterion (HQ). The best fitted VAR model identified is: INR, = 0 . 5 2 6 8 6 8 * I N R ( M ) + 0.557582*EGR( ,_ 1) + 1.454656 (R2 = 0.46, p < 0.05). It was not able to improve the model. Further more errors were found as random. The percentage errors of predicted values of INR for 2007and 2008 using univariate ARIMA model much lower than that of from the VAR model. Therefore it is recommended to use the above ARIMA model to forecast INR values for planning purposes. As this study was limited only for the two variables, it is suggested that the investigation to be carried out to improve the models by using other external variables such as exchange rate and borrow sum. Another drawback of this study is that both best fitted models got the positive percentage errors confirming that the fitted models always tend to over forecast. Therefore, it is also recommended to explore the possibility of improving such models as well.
item: Thesis-Abstract
Analyzing the profitability of option trading in Sri Lanka
(2015-02-22) Jayawardena, AS; Jayasekara, V
The aim of the research was to identify the introduction of options to CSE will give the investors the opportunity to gain more profit. The research was based on equity and index European call options and focused on two objectives. The first objective was to identify if equity options have an advantage over direct investment in the underlying stock in terms of returns. The second objective was to compare the returns of equity options with the return of index options Three basic strategies were used to analyze the potential returns from options in order to compare with the stock investment returns from a fixed investment amount of 1 million. First strategy was to invest in the same number of options as an alternative to investing directly in stocks and invest the cash remaining at risk free rate. It was concluded that this strategy is recommended only as an alternative for investors’ having intentions on buying the stock at a fixed price. Both equity options and index options did not provide better returns. The only advantage observed in terms of better returns was investing in put options in a bearish market. Second strategy was to use the entire investment amount to buy options. It was concluded that this was a strategy recommended for investors willing to take very high risk by continuously investing in options in order to benefit from the highest percentage of profit observed out of all 3 strategies. The index options showed a clear advantage over equity options in terms of returns and risk. Third strategy was to use the frequently employed 90-10 strategy used by investors in options trading where 10% of the investment money is used to buy options and 90% cash remaining from the options investment is invested at risk free rate. This strategy showed better returns than strategy 1 but lower returns than strategy 2 but did not always give better returns than direct stock investments. It was concluded that this strategy is recommended for investors who desire returns without having the intention to own stocks but need to limit the risk taken. Overall it was concluded that introducing equity and index options has its advantages for investors.
item: Thesis-Abstract
Applicability of geometric brownian motion and geometric fractional brownian motion to forecast share prices of telecommunication services sector in Sri Lanka
(2022) Athukorala AKKK; Dissanayake R
The Brownian motion is a Mathematical concept which European botanist Robert Brown introduced in 1827 to study the behaviour of molecules. The Brownian motion concept was transformed into many versions, and Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) and Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion (GFBM) is the latest transformation of this concept. The GBM and GFBM are mathematical models used to forecast prices of stocks, commodities, etc. In this study, the GBM and GFBM were tested to estimate the share prices of telecommunication industry companies in Sri Lanka. The two sample companies were selected by representing 18% of the population of the telecommunication industry group. The five-year share prices were collected from sample companies: Sri Lanka Telecom PLC and Dialog Axiata PLC. The two models were implemented by estimating parameters such as the drift, the volatility, probability measurement and the time interval. In addition, the Hurst component was generated by a MATLAB program for GFBM. This study is concluded that GBM is the most accurate model for forecasting share prices of the telecommunication industry group with minimum mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).
item: Thesis-Full-text
Application of game theory on financial benefits and employee satisfaction :
(2020) Jayasekara DDGT; Wijayanayake AN
In any business organization, there are two parties inside. The company and the employees, the company always tries to maximize their profit as well as employees try to demand their gains or benefits. This is not a linear relationship, because the profit and employee earnings have disproportionate equilibrium. To maximize the profit the management always focuses on the performance of the employees and to reduce the cost. As per the motivational theories, it is clearly indicated that the employees have different types of needs. Therefore, the management should focus on a wide range of factors to satisfy the employees to absorb the maximum strength they are holding. In this research, we focus on both employees and the management of a state bank. Management of the state bank is always eager to minimize the cost and maximize the profit. However, the employees make every endeavor to elevate their earnings, which will be a cost to the company. The conflict begins at this point. The author observed that the problem of the institutions and introduced the Game Theory which provides a mathematical framework for understanding the optimal outcome and what the tradeoffs are to achieve that outcome. Therefore, it has to found the main financial benefits and their effectiveness on employee satisfaction to maximize the profit. To fulfill that objective it has to be observed the benefits given to employees, the effectiveness of those benefits on employees and finally recommend an effective benefits allocation mix to the organization, which will address both employee and the top management. In this game, the top management can be denoted as player and there is using Maximin strategy to maximize their profit. The employees play the game as opponent and they always try to use Minimax strategy to minimize their maximum lost. This is a cooperative game consisting of two parties, which are presenting various strategies to overcome their common issues. Therefore, this game consists of mixed strategies. Management introduced various benefits. The employees’ perspective, their answers are varying according to their needs. Therefore, the accuracy and reliability depend accordingly on the selection of the sample units. The sampling technique is uniquely done by considering various parameters. During the data analysis, it is proven that this game is not having any pure solution. The results are based on the probabilities after using the values in linear programing techniques. According to the results the most suitable allowance is medical allowance to allocate more funds because the probability of that is 0.96. According to the test results, it is clearly state that there are some benefits which are totally useless to provide such as Key Holding, Disturbance and Cash loading and there are some benefits that the management should allocate more to motivate the employees as well as to gain profit.
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Application of MTO concept for existing ERP system
(2014-08-13) Wanasinghe, WMCP; Cooray, TMJA; Peiris, TSG
Companies, organizations and government agencies are all seeking to improve their customer value, efficiency and effectiveness, while there are many approaches to improving performance. It is the combination of management perspective, appropriate improvement methodology and visibility on production orders & order status in production and the ability to analyze relevant measures of performance that will yield best results. lr\ Relay's economy, having a good marketing strategy is not enough to meet organizational goals. So organizations are struggling to implement operational strategies, streamline operations, and deliver more value to their customers. MTO (make to order) strategy in ERP (Enterprises Resources Planning) was a decision of Textured Jersey board (reference Textured Jersey Board minutes September 2009) considering continues improvement. This research is discussed the existing approaches and MTO applications that are implemented in SAP ERP system. Also we were considered systems where some products are make-to-stock while another product line is make-to-order. We are also presented the rich and effective strategies for which a variety of cost and performance measures can be evaluated efficiently by analytical methods. This is also examined an approach to improving operational performance by calculating the "post order costing, improve order tractability & forecasting while addressing the relevant configurations in the SAP (ERP Software name) system on MTO strategy and aims to provide the MTO solution map based on the existing production processes at Textured Jersey. Further, the project is addressed the existing business 'pain points' (Annexure A) based on the complete Make-to-Order (MTO) process and evaluate how the SAP - MTO help organizations to measure, monitor, and manage business performance while addressing Key performance indicators (KPls) such as sales order projection profitability, on time delivery of the sales orders, total sales and profitability per sales order etc.
item: Thesis-Full-text
Application of queuing theory to enhance the operational efficiency of the bank
(2016-09-17) Hettiarachchi, AT; Cooray, TMJA
This study reviews the applications of queuing theory to the field of banking queue management problems. This review proposes a system of classification of queues in the banking sectors, which examined with the assistance of queuing models. The areas described in the literature are the common problems encountered in the queue management strategies in the banking industry. The goal is to identify the best effective method to reduce customer-waiting time at the bank to the maximum possible standard while improving the efficiency of the bank. Customer satisfaction is a concern to service industries as customers expect to get their service promptly. For a service industry like a bank, there is a need for efficient bank Teller scheduling system that takes into account recognizing various customers’ expectations. This study concentered on the single channel waiting line systems with poison arrivals and exponential service times in Bank of Ceylon, City office, Bank of Ceylon Kuliyapitiya and Bank of Ceylon Bingiriya. All above branches have separate queues for the separate counters. (Many lines)They use rule of thumb to open/close counters at the branches based on their experience.Consequent to our findings and calculations we have proved that having one line and many counters (One line) is effective than having many lines. Further, with respect to open/close of counters we have suggested queue probability tool. Queue probability is one of significant factor to determine to set up number of counters effectively.
item: Thesis-Abstract
Application of random field linear model for quality improvement in product design
(6/11/2011) Kanthasay, S; Gunathilake, PD; Dayananda, RA
The quality revolution of the late 80' s and 90' s led to researches in quality improvement in product and process designs. Taguchi's methodology for quality improvement called robust parameter design gained the interest of practitioners working in industry in quality improvement. Several approaches proposed as alternative to Taguchi's method embraced the important aspects of parameter design and this resulted in a collection of alternatives to Taguchi approach. Some of these alternatives highlighted the use of response surface methodology for quality improvement in engineering designs. Computer simulation modeling is an important part of engineering design. Running simulators to obtain observations for analysis are very often expensive. Some designs may require several simulator runs to find the appropriate settings of the design parameters. So statistical models are used as surrogates of the computer simulation models for analysis and design optimization. In robust engineering design, the parameter settings of the engineering designs are sought, so that the designed product will be insensitive to the effects of noise factors such as statistical fluctuations in the design parameters or external noise factors humidity that may affect a product's performance. The modeling approach used in this thesis, models the response from the computer simulation model using the Random Field Linear Model. This model is a multi-dimensional spatial linear model with structure in the covariance function. The predictor is used for further statistical analysis. The fitting of this model involves the estimation of covariance parameters. The methods of estimation of model parameters and model building are also described. It IS also show that for particular values of the correlation parameters, the model approximates to a multinomial model in the predictor variables. Latin hypercube sampling design is used for sampling design points for model building and for exploratory data analysis. This design is easy to generate and is found to be useful in multi-level, multi-factor experiments. The LHS designs have better statistical properties for estimation of main effects, interaction effects than simple random sampling designs. The use of Random Field Linear Model and Latin Hypercube Sampling for modeling and analysis in robust parameter design is illustrated with observations from circuit simulation models. The effect of using prior information on the mean with RFLM is also investigated.
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An Approach to investigate the relationship between share prices and macroeconomic variables
(2014-12-12) Jayasundara, AN; Cooray, TMJA
With the development of the economy in Sri Lanka and low interest rate for savings influencing people to invest their money in other profitable areas. Therefore stock market is one of the good opportunities that can open the door for local investors as well as foreign investors to invest their money. This study examines the causal long run relationships among stock prices and macroeconomic variables and forecasting stock prices in an emerging stock market, the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE). Data is used on four macroeconomic variables obtained by web site of Central Bank of Sri Lanka and the All Share Price Index (ASI) of the CSE obtained from Data Library CD published by the Colombo Stock Exchange for the period January 2003 to December, 2010. Johansen’s co-integration test, Granger Causality Test and econometrics techniques with regression analysis were used in the empirical analysis and indicate that there are long-run causal relationships among stock prices and macroeconomic variables where as Money Supply (M1) and Interest rate in Sri Lanka. These results indicate that stock prices can be predicted from certain macroeconomic variables. The above results have implications for investors, both domestic and international.
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Assessing the predictability of all share price index of Colombo stock exchange using different models : a case study during the COVID - 19 pandemic
(2023) Jayakody, G; Jayasinghe, JABU
The aim of this investigation was to assess the predictability of three models: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Seasonal Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA), and Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) model, both prior to and following the Covid-19 outbreak. Every model was crafted with great care and then compared to determine the optimal method for predicting future outcomes. The findings suggested that, during the Covid-19 period, the DHR model outperformed the other models as it had the lowest Corrected Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) value. According to the Portmanteau test, the residuals were random and not correlated, indicating that all the models were adequate for making predictions. Although the rapid decline of CSE was captured by both the ARIMA and DHR models, the DHR model yielded more significant results. In contrast, prior to the pandemic, the ARIMA model performed well and effectively captured the underlying trend compared to other models. However, forecast errors indicated that DHR model was more appropriate for predicting daily share indices with long intricate seasonal variations compared to the SARIMA model. As a consequence, stakeholders were able to make accurate investment decisions even in the midst of the outbreak. Finally, the Engle’s ARCH test was conducted to analyze the occurrence of volatility clusters during the pandemic, and it was identified that there were notable fluctuations in volatility throughout the pandemic period.