Assessing the oil supply chain risk in Sri Lankan petroleum industry

Abstract

Energy security is a critical challenge in today's world. The petroleum product supply chain is highly uncertain due to geopolitical tension and inherent complexity. Sri Lankan petroleum product requirement entirely relies on the global oil supply chain. The research was planned to study the oil supply chain risk in Sri Lanka. Risk factors and disruptions were identified using a literature review and a pilot survey. The expert opinion survey was conducted along with probability impact analysis to assess the risk factors. It was highlighted that the lack of infrastructure facilities is the main barrier to ensure energy security in Sri Lanka. Gasoline was identified as the most vulnerable refined product type due to ever-increasing demand. Subsequently, a forecasting model was developed using ARIMA to determine the future Gasoline demand. It was revealed that additional monthly Gasoline shipment will be required in the next two years' time.