Exploring land use dynamics and impact of planning scenarios with land use simulation models: a case study of the MOLUSCE land use model to Trincomalee, Sri Lanka

Abstract

Land use simulation models are increasingly utilized to explore various land use planning scenarios. However, in Sri Lanka, the setup and calibration of such models are often challenged by limited data availability and the complexities of the calibration process. This study presents a practical application of the MOLUSCE land use simulation model, focusing on Trincomalee as the case study region. The model incorporates four primary land use types and nine spatial variables as key determinants in shaping land use patterns. The initial calibration of the model achieved a satisfactory kappa statistic, indicating its adequacy for scenario testing. This research offers a comprehensive overview of anticipated land use changes under different planning scenarios, providing valuable insights for effective land use management in the region.