Browsing by Author "Pathirawasam, D"

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item: Conference-Full-text
A decision support model to manage demand disruptions of fast-moving consumer goods during a pandemic in Sri Lanka
(IEEE, 2023-12-09) Pathirawasam, D; Hewage, U; Abeysooriya, R; Adikariwattage, V; Hemachandra, K
Decision support models play a crucial role within an organization’s demand planning process when emerging pandemics cause disturbances in demand. The increasing trend of pandemics and the long-lasting struggle it create with unpredicted consumer demand and behaviors necessitate the identification of solutions for sudden demand fluctuations during a disruption. The study addresses the absence of quantitative models in the Sri Lankan context to mitigate disruptions in the demand for fast-moving consumer goods caused by pandemics. The results highlight a substantial difference between the aggregate consumption of "Personal Care" and "Home Care" commodities before and after the pandemic. A literature review identified 23 factors that influence demand disruption during a pandemic globally. Then, validated factors for the Sri Lankan context and assessed using Grey relational analysis. The results highlight inflation, consumer wages, prices, and government regulations have a significant impact on disrupting demand during a pandemic in Sri Lanka. The Grey model with 2-AGO is the most suitable model to manage demand disruptions of ‘Personal Care’ and ‘Home Care’ commodities during a pandemic when compared to traditional time series models. The results will assist companies in managing demand disruptions with rapid demand forecasts and taking precautionary actions against fluctuating influencing factors.
item: Conference-Full-text
Influencing factors for demand disruptions of fast-moving consumer goods during a pandemic in Sri Lanka
(Sri Lanka Society of Transport and Logistics, 2022-08) Pathirawasam, D; Hewage, U; Perera, N; Thibbotuwawa, A
Not only Covid 19 pandemic but other new pandemics will also emerge in the future. Therefore, understanding the reasons for the disruption of consumer demand during a pandemic is critical for a speedy recovery of the market. Thus, the study fills the gap in the literature on demand disruptions during a pandemic to fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) under the category of ‘personal care’ and ‘home care’ in the Sri Lankan context. The paired t-test output emphasizes that there is a significant impact on the consumption of ‘personal care’ and ‘home care’ products during the pandemic period compared to the same days in the pre-pandemic. Therefore, influencing factors to a demand disruption of FMCG during a pandemic in a global context are searched through a literature survey, validated to the Sri Lankan context ‘personal care’ and ‘home care’ category with the reviews from 12 managerial level experts in 4 leading FMCG companies and finally quantified variables using Pearson correlation and Kendall’s tau-b tests.