ERU - 2006

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Browsing ERU - 2006 by Author "Cooray, TMJA"

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    item: Conference-Extended-Abstract
    Modeling sector wise demand for electricity in Sri Lanka using bayesian techniques
    (2006) Cooray, TMJA
    The demand for the electricity in Sri Lanka depends mainly on the activities of domestic, industrial, and commercial sectors. Electricity has become the most important source of energy in the domestic sector of the country that is desirous of achieving the newly developed nation status. This study aims to identify a model to forecast Electricity demand. The unpredictable changes in the activities cause the demand of electricity to change unusually. This makes predicting the demand very difficult sometimes. Therefore in this research the way of incorporating changes in the activities in the time series model for forecasting is used, which is known as Bayesian Forecasting (BF) model. The Comparison of this model with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving averages (ARIMA) model, which is generally used, was made. According to the calculated mean absolute percentages error (MAPE), BF model gave better performance in term of higher degrees accuracy of forecasting. Thus on one hand it is encouraging that the Sri Lanka electricity authorities can have some faith in the model used for forecasting. Hence the chosen econometric work does have a considerable impact of the policy decisions in the Sri Lankan electricity supply industry.
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    item: Conference-Extended-Abstract
    A new approach of identifying arima models for seasonal time series
    (2006) Cooray, TMJA
    One of the most powerful and widely used methodologies for forecasting economic time series is the class of models known as seasonal autoregressive processes. In this paper presents a new approach not only for identifying seasonal autoregressive models, but also the degree of differencing required to induce stationarity in the data. The identification method is iterative and consists in systematically fitting increasing order models to the data, and then verifying that the resulting residuals behave like white noise using a twostage autoregressive order determination criterion. Once the order of the process is determined the identified structure is tested to see if it can be simplified. The identification performance of this procedure is contrasted with other order selection procedures for models with 'gaps.' We also illustrate the forecast performance of the identification method using yearly and quarterly economic data.
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    item: Conference-Extended-Abstract
    Use of information technologies at technical colleges
    (2006) Cooray, TMJA
    This intervention study is aimed at helping upgrade lmowledge and skills of teachers, students and facilitators in integrating Information Technologies (IT) into technical education system. IT entered the socio-cultural setting of Sri Lankan Technical Colleges in early 1983. The teaching and learning process is the core function of the technical colleges. In the modern world that changes rapidly with the evolution of new technologies, the ways of training should be modernized with the emerging trends of IT. To study the present level of using IT for teaching and learning process at technical colleges, identify the activities of the teaching learning and process that IT can be used in different ways in which IT can be incorporated into these activities. In addition to that identify the advantages of using IT over the existing methods used for the teaching and learning process as well as to identify the difficulties in using IT for teaching and learning process at technical colleges and to propose suitable solutions to overcome these difficulties.